The global burden of HIV from 1980 to 2015

A new publication from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study shows that at the current pace the world is not likely to witness the end of AIDS by 2030.

Professor C Wiysonge is a co-author on this paper, which was published on 19 July 2016 in The Lancet HIV and released simultaneously at the International AIDS Conference in Durban.

The study found that while the global number of new cases of HIV infection continues to decline, the pace has greatly slowed.

New infections of HIV fell by only an average of 0.7% per year between 2005 and 2015, compared to the 2.7% drop per year between 1997 and 2005.

Other findings include:

  • While the number of people globally living with HIV has increased due to the expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART), in 2015 more than 60% of men and 50% of women living with HIV still are not on ART.
  • ART use remains at especially low levels in the Middle East and North Africa, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, and some countries in Southeast Asia.
  • The global health community remains far away from the ambitious 90-90-90 goals just over four years away.

Those 90-90-90 goals state that by 2020, 90% of all people living with HIV will know their HIV status; 90% diagnosed with HIV will receive ART; and 90% receiving ART will have viral suppression.

The entire HIV report, “Estimates of global, regional and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: The Global Burden of Disease Study, 2015,” is available from The Lancet HIV.